Are Mega Earthquakes on the Rise?
The devastating 2004 Indonesian tsunami, with its death toll of as many as 250,000 people, was caused by the first magnitude-9.0 earthquake since 1967. A succession of smaller but still destructive tremors in Haiti, Chile, and New Zealand — surpassed by this year's magnitude-9.0 quake in Japan — has some researchers wondering whether the number of large earthquakes is on the rise.
Giant earthquakes live up to their fearsome name. The biggest ever recorded was the magnitude-9.5 Chile earthquake of 1960. It accounts for about a quarter of the total seismic strain released worldwide since 1900.
The Indonesian quake "reinvigorated interest in these giants," said Aster, who is also president of the Seismological Society of America. The Chile and Japan earthquakes — along with a magnitude-9.2 quake in Alaska in 1964 — also triggered catastrophic tsunamis.
After a lull in large quakes in the 1980s and 1990s, we may now be in the middle of a new age of large earthquakes, Aster added.
Records from the past century reveal some periods that have seen an unusual number of giant earthquakes, defined as those with magnitude 8.0 or higher. For example, global seismic data show a dramatic spike in the rate of large earthquakes from 1950-67. But there have also been quiet periods with fewer large quakes. And with only 100 years worth of records to consult, researchers aren't sure what these patterns of large quakes might mean -- or whether they mean anything at all.
Aster acknowledged that the rarity of large earthquakes means that questions about possible connections between them are difficult to answer. "We see magnitude-7 earthquakes only 15 or so times a year and magnitude-9 earthquakes only a few times a century," he said.
Michael said that until researchers know more about why the rate of large earthquakes varies over time "we shouldn't be worrying less, but there's no need for panic either."
The recent spate of giant earthquakes may not signal more to come, but Aster said that "it's undeniable that we're becoming more and more vulnerable to the effects of earthquakes in general."
Aster added that many rapidly growing cities around the world aren't prepared for a large quake, while at the same time coastal communities are expanding into tsunami-prone areas. "We just have more people in precarious places," he said.
Giant earthquakes live up to their fearsome name. The biggest ever recorded was the magnitude-9.5 Chile earthquake of 1960. It accounts for about a quarter of the total seismic strain released worldwide since 1900.
The Indonesian quake "reinvigorated interest in these giants," said Aster, who is also president of the Seismological Society of America. The Chile and Japan earthquakes — along with a magnitude-9.2 quake in Alaska in 1964 — also triggered catastrophic tsunamis.
After a lull in large quakes in the 1980s and 1990s, we may now be in the middle of a new age of large earthquakes, Aster added.
Records from the past century reveal some periods that have seen an unusual number of giant earthquakes, defined as those with magnitude 8.0 or higher. For example, global seismic data show a dramatic spike in the rate of large earthquakes from 1950-67. But there have also been quiet periods with fewer large quakes. And with only 100 years worth of records to consult, researchers aren't sure what these patterns of large quakes might mean -- or whether they mean anything at all.
Aster acknowledged that the rarity of large earthquakes means that questions about possible connections between them are difficult to answer. "We see magnitude-7 earthquakes only 15 or so times a year and magnitude-9 earthquakes only a few times a century," he said.
Michael said that until researchers know more about why the rate of large earthquakes varies over time "we shouldn't be worrying less, but there's no need for panic either."
The recent spate of giant earthquakes may not signal more to come, but Aster said that "it's undeniable that we're becoming more and more vulnerable to the effects of earthquakes in general."
Aster added that many rapidly growing cities around the world aren't prepared for a large quake, while at the same time coastal communities are expanding into tsunami-prone areas. "We just have more people in precarious places," he said.
